Cardiac Surgery Risk Analysis

Posted on March 2, 2011 - 10:20pm

Since its first publication, our cardiac surgery risk calculator has proven very popular, with over 1000 completed questionnaires since August, 2010. Although the validity of the analysis is somewhat questionable, it has nonetheless shown some interesting results and showcases how this type of data can be utilized, especially if coupled with outcome analysis.

I have made some assumptions:

  • While intended solely for cardiac surgeons as a means of judging preoperative risks for their patients, it is by no means certain data were entered for just this reason.
  • Isolated data from many different users have very limited value other than demonstrating what can be done with this type of information

Here then, are some of the results of 1012 completed questionnaires:

  • 60% male gender,
  • Age 73 years,
  • 60% Caucasian,
  • Ejection Fraction (EF) 50%,
  • Operative Risk 6%.
  • Prolonged hospitalization expected in over 50% of patients.

If stratified by gender, the operative risk was estimated as low in 70% of all males but only in 30% of Female patients, with little difference if corrected by gender:

In contrast, a high complication rate & prolonged hospitalization was expected in the majority of patients, presumably because of the advanced average of 73 years:

As with all analyses, “garbage in – garbage out”, applies to this data. The results, only a few of which are presented here, show however the possibilities of what can be done with this information.We will make the raw data available to anyone interested, and look forward to your input.